Wednesday, November 03, 2004

US Presidential Results

As of writing, it's clear that Bush has won a second term. The Kerry campaign is refusing to concede defeat yet due to all the provisional ballots that are to be counted in Ohio. Since Bush's margin in the ordinary votes is so large, for Kerry to win the provisionals will have to break his way by a ridiculous 3-1 margin. Kerry's delusion is kept alive by large sections of the media refusing to call Ohio because they are haunted by the ghost of 2000.

As for my predictions, I called the popular vote almost correctly (Bush 51%, Kerry 48% and Nader 1%) by overstating Kerry's vote by 1% and not noticing that my total added to 101% (how embarrassing!). As for the battleground state predictions, I was wrong on Ohio. Although Wisconsin is yet to be decided, it is unlikely as of writing that Bush will get it. New Mexico and Iowa are almost certainly in Bush's hands and I do not know the media are refusing to call them for Bush.

As for the prospect of weeks of litigation, we can forget it. The litigation in 2002 was driven by Al Gore's knowledge that he won the popular vote and the belief that he had a moral mandate. Kerry does not have the popular vote and has lost it by a greater margin than Carter won over Ford. Hence He has no arguable mandate to litigate the results.